Fragile Gaza ceasefire holds but Jerusalem Day Flag March may re-ignite conflict

As Israel and Islamic Jihad reached a ceasefire on Saturday evening, ending five days of fighting, the upcoming Jerusalem Day ‘Flag March’ is threatening to ignite the conflict once again. 

Israel launched “Operation Shield and Arrow” last week, hitting over 370 Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza.

Six senior Islamic Jihad leaders and 15 members of the group were killed, while at least 11 civilians were killed, including women and children. A total of 33 Palestinians were killed in Gaza.

Islamic Jihad fired over 1200 rockets at southern and central Israel, killing an 80-year-old woman in her house in Rehovot as well as a Palestinian worker from Gaza who was in Israel.

“With complete surprise and continuous initiative, we targeted the entire Islamic Jihad leadership in Gaza. We destroyed 17 Jihad command centers. We eliminated dozens of terrorists. We hit rocket and missile arsenals, took out anti-tank units, etc.,” Prime Minister Netanyahu said at Sunday’s cabinet meeting.

The ceasefire between Islamic Jihad and Israel took went into effect on Saturday night, mediated by Egypt. But the upcoming annual “Flag March” on Jerusalem day on Thursday could potentially derail the fragile cease-fire.

Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have warned Israel not to go ahead with the controversial march, where right-wing nationalists walk through East Jerusalem to celebrate the takeover of the holy city by Israel in 1967.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Transportation Minister Miri Regev and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are expected to join the march, according to Israeli media.

The march is set to go through the Muslim Quarter in the Old City in East Jerusalem, something that previous government’s have prevented from time to time to avoid unnecessary provocations and clashes.

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Army Radio that “we don’t need to make any changes,” this year. “Jerusalem is our capital, and we are proud to march with the Israeli flag. And this will be the case on Thursday.”

Numerous physical and verbal attacks by Jews against Palestinians have been documented during “Flag March” in previous years, including large crowds chanting “death to Arabs.”

In 2021, Hamas launched rockets at Jerusalem during “Flag March” after weeks of clashes between Israelis and Palestinians on the Al-Aqsa compound in East Jerusalem.

Israel retaliated by launching a military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, ending in an 11-day-long conflict.

With Hamas firing rockets from Gaza and Lebanon after this year’s Al-Aqsa clashes during Ramadan and Passover, the potential for a re-run of 2021 has been flagged by Israeli security experts.