It’s too early to claim victory over Iran

The verdicts are in on the ‘six-week war’, and they make for damning reading. America has been ‘humbled’ by Iran, outsmarted by a weaker power that held all the cards in this conflict. The New York Times has declared this war a ‘blow to American credibility’, while the New Republic speaks of Trump’s ‘staggering humiliation’ in Iran.

Meanwhile, The Guardian’s Peter Beaumont has said that ‘in a war with no winners, Netanyahu looks like the biggest loser’. Of course, these declarations of doom are matched by equally sanguine assessments from the White House, where talk of a great victory is much in the air.

To state the obvious, this war is not over yet but merely in abeyance, ready to erupt again at any moment. Within 24 hours of the ceasefire being announced, there were already multiple violations, including the use of an Iranian cluster bomb against Israel, as well as drone attacks against Arab neighbours. Then there was the misunderstanding over whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement, following a dramatic series of Israeli bombings against Hezbollah targets in Beirut.

Moreover, the gaps between the two sides remain unbridgeable on all the core issues that separate them. These are principally the question of Iran’s (still intact) nuclear weapons programme, its ballistic missile capability and, above all, its illegal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At a minimum, there can be no viable outcome to this conflict until Iran agrees to a number of outcomes.

The first is the total and permanent dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme. That means the shuttering of all nuclear sites, Iran handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and full and transparent co-operation with the IAEA. Any iteration of the JCPOA will fail, given Iran’s long history of concealment, evasion and deception, as well as its ideological commitment to annihilating the Jewish state. That is why reversion to past diplomacy will not work. Israel cannot live with the existential threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

At the same time, the West must insist on the degradation of the Iranian ballistic missile and drone programme. Over the last four years, that programme has benefited Putin’s savage bombardment of Ukraine and is thus a menace to European security. In the last five weeks, Iranian weapons have not only struck Israeli cities, killing dozens and injuring many more, but also caused vast damage to infrastructure in neighbouring Arab states. Any deal must prevent Iran from being rearmed by outside powers, including China.

Most importantly, there must be free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz so that Iran cannot choke off one fifth of the global oil supply and cause grave damage to the world economy in the process.

Yet Iran’s current position remains maximalist and uncompromising. Its 10-point plan spells out a series of core demands, nearly all of which are untenable for Western security. They include the right to uranium enrichment and the lifting of all sanctions, continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz, US military withdrawal from Middle East bases and an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, all backed by the UN Security Council.

There could be a number of outcomes here. The ceasefire violations might end the talks before they have properly started, leading to an immediate resumption of hostilities. More likely, the peace talks will press on with the vast chasm between the sides scuppering any long-term diplomatic breakthrough, again leading to a continuation of the war.

But the outcome the Israelis fear the most is that a Trump administration, desperate to assuage its MAGA base and fearful of growing economic fallout from the war, strikes a deal that concedes to the key Iranian demands. This would leave Iran militarily defeated but politically strengthened, in control of the Strait of Hormuz, with remnants of a nuclear weapons programme intact and quite possibly in receipt of financial relief to rebuild its missile arsenal.

Such capitulation to the Iranians would be unthinkable, representing a political defeat of the greatest magnitude. That is why much now hinges on the next few days and whether the ceasefire talks can yield a viable outcome for the Western powers.

The war has undoubtedly weakened the Iranian regime. Israel and the US have targeted its missile stockpiles and launchers, nuclear infrastructure, naval assets, production sites and its core political and military leadership. But the Iranian regime remains intact and as obdurate and dangerous as ever. Can the US and Israel claim a strategic, as opposed to a tactical, victory against Iran? It is too early to say.

• Dr Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author, and Director of the B’nai B’rith UK Bureau of International Affairs.