OPINION: Reoccupying Gaza is not a strategy, it’s a strategic and moral dead-end

Benjamin Netanyahu’s newly approved five-point plan to “defeat Hamas” sounds bold. It promises to disarm Hamas, bring home all hostages, demilitarize the Gaza Strip, maintain Israeli security control, and create a new civil administration – neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

But scratch the surface, and the plan reveals itself as a blueprint for permanent reoccupation of Gaza, with no viable political exit, no international support, and no clear path to real security. Instead of a strategy, what we are witnessing is the entrenchment of a dangerous illusion, one that already comes at a high cost.

Today, following the announcement of the plan, Germany, one of Israel’s closest allies and a country deeply committed to its security, suspended all military exports that could be used in Gaza. Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear that Germany’s priority is the release of hostages and the achievement of a ceasefire, and he expressed “deep concern” for the humanitarian suffering in the Strip.

This isn’t a hostile act. It’s a signal. A red flag from a friend. A warning that Israel is drifting dangerously off course, diplomatically, strategically, and morally.

Let’s break down the flaws of this five-point plan:

Disarming Hamas is essential. No one who supports Israel’s right to exist can tolerate Hamas continuing to operate militarily. But disarmament cannot be achieved by force alone, certainly not through occupying cities and governing civilians. Disarmament requires regional diplomacy, international coordination, and, crucially, the emergence of legitimate Palestinian governance that can replace Hamas in the eyes of its own people.

The returning of the hostages, alive and deceased, is a moral imperative. But the plan does not articulate a real path to achieve it. If anything, military escalation has made hostage negotiations harder. The more Israel appears to be seeking total control of Gaza, the less incentive Hamas has to engage in diplomacy. Quite the opposite, Hamas has embraced every Israeli offensive and used it against Israel. Hostages are not liberated by slogans, they’re returned through painstaking negotiations, backed by real leverage and yes, compromise.

A demilitarized Gaza would be a historic achievement, but only if it’s sustained by a political solution. You don’t disarm a population by decree. That kind of change comes from governance that people trust. And that brings us to the biggest flaw of all.

Israeli security control of Gaza is the heart of the matter. What the government calls “security control” I fear is, in reality, a euphemism for reoccupation and perhaps even resettlement. It means permanent Israeli military presence inside Gaza, a settlement movement unchecked, with the IDF responsible for law, order, and eventually civilian life.

This has enormous consequences. It burdens Israeli soldiers with an impossible task, exposes them to daily threats, and places them at the centre of an unsolvable humanitarian crisis. We’ve been there before. We left Gaza in 2005 precisely because it was untenable. What has changed to make it viable now?

A new civil administration, neither Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, defies logic. Who exactly is this imaginary alternative? No credible Palestinian actor will accept power under Israeli guns. And if they did, they would be viewed by their own people as collaborators. By rejecting both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and refusing international involvement, Israel is proposing a government that doesn’t exist.

This plan is not only unworkable, it’s already isolating Israel. Germany’s decision is just the tip of the iceberg. If Israel insists on evacuating or controlling the million people in Gaza city without rights, representation, or an endgame, we will face an unprecedented escalating diplomatic backlash, economic pressure, and growing public disillusionment in the very countries whose support we most need.

And make no mistake, the human cost will be enormous. Gaza’s population is mostly children and displaced people. Reoccupation will deepen despair, fuel radicalization, and guarantee that any security gains are short-lived.

Israel must defeat Hamas, but not by losing its way. Not by occupying Gaza indefinitely. Not by becoming the jailer of another people.

We need a strategy that combines military pressure with diplomacy, that engages regional and international actors, and that lays the foundation for legitimate Palestinian leadership to emerge. We need vision, not vengeance. Pragmatism, not populism.

Occupation is not strength. It’s stagnation.

And we simply cannot afford to confuse the two.

Lieutenant Colonel (R.) Peter Lerner is the Director General of International Relations of the Histadrut. He served for 25 years in the IDF as a spokesperson and a liaison officer to international organizations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. X: @LTCPeterLerner