Why confronting Iran was inevitable

The Israeli-US decision to confront the head of the terror snake in Tehran is truly momentous. It is clear that both Trump and Netanyahu have decided on a decapitation strategy that is designed to produce regime change inside Iran. That is why they launched a joint attack (combining their intelligence and military capability) to assassinate Ali Khamenei, the symbol of the Republic’s vicious fanaticism and repressive theocracy.

So far, the US and Israel have launched attacks on a wide array of regime targets, among them Iranian air defences, drone launch sites, airfields, missile sites, the navy and nuclear facilities. The aim is to suppress Iranian defences, degrade its ability to retaliate and disrupt the country’s command and control. The combined powers have also targeted Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests.

Rather predictably, a multitude of voices have slammed the decision to intervene as illegal, provocative and unnecessary. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres declared last weekend that the US-Israeli intervention would “undermine international peace and security” and that there was “no viable alternative to the peaceful settlement of international disputes.”

This view has been echoed by scores of figures on the left and from a number of ‘wise heads’ who opine to their heart’s content about why war will achieve nothing.

It is true that Trump is a maverick with a highly unconventional approach to solving international disputes. His handling of the Ukraine conflict has involved an unhealthy indulgence for Vladimir Putin and a willingness to attack a key Western ally. He has undoubtedly ridden a coach and horses through the world of accepted diplomatic norms and protocols.

Yet the maverick Trump and his ally Netanyahu are the true realists here, while the older, more experienced heads have consistently got Iran wrong. War was inevitable from the moment that the ayatollahs refused to budge on the core issues of ending their nuclear weapons programme and giving up ballistic missiles.

Trump and Netanyahu, along with some Arab allies, realised that Iran only ever saw nuclear negotiations as a means to buy time and gain concessions from the West. That is why the JCPOA was a deeply flawed instrument of international diplomacy from which Iran took advantage.

Netanyahu in particular has long grasped another core truth: that the Islamic Republic can only ever be a clerical fascist state sponsoring radical terror around the world. It is a state that also arms other dictatorships, especially Russia, to whom it has supplied a vast array of drones and ballistic missiles to use against Ukraine.

Indeed, nothing better illustrates Iran’s status as a rogue state than its behaviour in the last three days. It has been busy sowing mayhem across the region by launching attacks against the West’s Arab allies, among them Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The UK too is in Iran’s crosshairs, following the drone attack on an RAF base in Cyprus. That is why Sir Keir Starmer is entirely right to allow US planes to use the Diego Garcia airbase, albeit after a long delay.

Iran’s strategy is simple, namely to sow economic chaos in the Gulf and drive up the cost of oil and gas, in turn forcing those states to pressure Trump into ending the war. That strategy may yet pay dividends.

Some people believe that regime change will inevitably happen, given the elimination of Khamenei and other regime figures. That would be a mistake. Iran has prepared for the scenario now unfolding and developed a system of multi-layered succession planning. A new leader will emerge, possibly even from within the ranks of the hated IRGC.

Trump is nonetheless hoping that the Iranian people will come out on the streets and reclaim their nation from the bandits that have hijacked it. But a largely unarmed populace cannot do this if it fears being massacred again.

That is why it is essential to inflict more damage on all the regime’s levers of terror, creating a safer space for mass protest and the emergence of alternative governance. Whether Trump has the strategic focus to maintain the pressure on Iran is now the big question.

• Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author