It’s being reported that Western governments believe invasion may scuttle chances of further hostage releases. Biden, meanwhile, has publicly drawn a link between the Hamas onslaught and efforts for Saudi-Israel normalisation.
Benjamin Netanyahu is closing in on a historic comeback with 97% of votes counted and 65 seats for his bloc.
500,000 votes known as “double envelopes” are yet to be counted, which are those cast by diplomats, soldiers and prisoners.
Both Meretz and the Arab-Israeli Balad party will have to cross the electoral threshold to prevent Netanyahu from having a majority, but both remain under the 3,25% bar.
Israeli media Ynet and Channel 12 report that Prime Minister Yair Lapid is preparing for an orderly transition of power and will call Netanyahu after the last votes have been counted.
With 84.3% of the votes, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc is solidifying its lead with 65 seats.
The Central Elections Committee has counted over 4 million votes. Both Meretz and the Arab Balad party fail to cross the electoral threshold, receiving 3,2% and 3,05% respectively. Both are short of the 3,25% needed to enter Knesset.
With nearly 80% of the votes counted Benjamin Netanyahu is still leading, but the Arab-Israeli Balad party is closing in on the electoral threshold with 3.07% of the votes.
If Balad crosses the 3.25% threshold it could have a big impact on the Netanyahu bloc, which is currently receiving 65 seats of the total votes.
The left-wing Meretz party is also fighting to cross the threshold, with 3.23% of the votes.
Benjamin Netanyahu increased his lead to 67 seats on Wednesday morning with 70% of the votes counted.
Netanyahu told his supporters that he was “on the cusp of a huge victory,” but Prime Minister Lapid is yet to concede defeat, calling on all votes to be counted.
“It’s very clear the nation wants a different way. It wants security. a reduced cost of living. It wants power, it doesn’t want weakness,” Netanyahu said.
The Central Elections Committee has so far counted 3,451,440 votes.
So. As we approach 2am in Israel, here’s the state of play:
Benjamin Netanyahu is still expected to speak in around an hour, but this live blog is now taking a break for a few hours. We’ll be back in the morning. Thank you for your company so far.
“Patience, even if we don’t have it, let’s have patience for the final result.”
Some of the first words from Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who has just taken the stage.
“We must continue what we started. For the past year, there was a government here.
“The role of the government is to heal the wounds of Israeli society, not deepen them. We have no intention of stopping.”
Benny Gantz, who was promoting himself as a possible third choice for prime minister just a few weeks ago, is speaking.
Exit polls project he will lead a Knesset bloc that reaches double figures in seats terms.
He thanks people for voting in such large numbers even though this is the fifth election in four years.
“We’re going to wait for the final results,” he says. “It’s going to take hours, maybe days.”
“We’re going to put Israel before everything.”
Gantz is being fairly energetic in his remarks, but the faces behind him are glum.
The left-wing Meretz party is dangerously close falling below the 3.25% electoral threshold percentage, according to an exit poll from Channel 13.
Meretz is currently receiving 3.3% of the votes. Both Meretz and Labour announced they wouldn’t hold any post election speeches due to “the uncertainty of the results.”
Senior Likud official Amir Ohana tells Jewish News that while it’s too early to celebrate, he is “cautiously optimistic.”
“I don’t want to celebrate prematurely, I think we need to be a bit more patient, but it looks good and I would have to say that I’m cautiously optimistic,” Ohana, who is number six on Likud’s list and has previously served as Justice Minister, says.
“It looks like finally, after so many campaigns, we have managed to form a stable right-wing government, that will be good for all of Israel’s citizens,” Ohana adds.
The Central Election Committee says 4,843,023 Israelis – 71.3% of eligible voters – had cast a ballot in this election by the time the polls closed at 10pm.
That makes this the highest turnout in an Israeli election since 2015.
That leaves us a little short of predictions of the highest turnout in the 21st century, but it certainly suggests many Israelis wanted to try break the political deadlock.
At 00.35am local time, the Central Elections Committee has begun to post the first actual results of this election.
They show Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid leading opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud quite handsomely – 27.95% against 15.06% – but the number of votes involved is tiny.
That’s barely 3,600 votes out of a potential pool of 6.8 million. There’s a long way to go yet, but at least we’ve started.
In stark contrast to the scenes of jubilation we’ve seen from far-right and strictly-Orthodox leaders, it is a muted mood from the other side.
No word yet from Prime Minister Yair Lapid, whose Yesh Atid is projected to gain seats on its performance last year but still remain the second-largest party.
There was a brief, glum appearance from Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman.
On the left-wing, meanwhile, both Labour’s Merav Michaeli and Meretz have cancelled their planned leaders’ speeches tonight.
Labour says its event is off “in light of the lack of clarity of the election results”.
The victory speeches are coming thick and fast now – here’s Itamar Ben-Gvir dancing on stage in front of a large screen displaying confetti.
If the exit polls are correct, the leader of Jewish Power, a far-right Kahanist movement, is in line for a ministerial role.
“The next prime minister,” his supporters chant.
He recites a shehecheyanu – a prayer of thanks to God – and adds: “We still don’t know if we have a Knesset majority, but what’s definite is we must be thankful for this huge achievement by Jewish Power.”
Remember, Ben-Gvir still openly praises Baruch Goldstein, the Israeli behind the 1994 Hebron massacre in which 29 Palestinians died and more than a hundred were injured.
As recently as two years ago, Ben-Gvir kept a photograph of Goldstein hanging on his living room wall.
Senior Yesh Atid lawmaker, Ram Ben-Barak, tells Jewish News that “it isn’t over until it’s over,” after all three exit polls show that Netanyahu will be able to form a coalition.
This is Aryeh Deri, the leader of Israel’s biggest strictly-Orthodox party Shas, which is projected by all the main broadcasters to win 10 seats in the Knesset.
One of them even thinks they could squeeze out an eleventh seat.
Little wonder his supporters are jubilantly chanting his name.
There were also some less-than-flattering slogans chanted about Avigdor Lieberman, the Yisrael Beiteinu leader who has long campaigned on a platform of eliminating state-backed exemption for strictly-Orthodox people.
“It is not even worth speaking his name,” Deri told the crowds.
Israeli broadcasters crash out of a sombre-looking Avigdor Lieberman at a Yisrael Beiteinu press conference and switch to a jubilant Bezalel Smotrich at a joyous celebration among his supporters.
Lieberman’s message was that his party would stay the course and maintain what it was fighting for.
Smotrich was hailing a result that made his bloc the third-largest in the Knesset.
The Central Election Committee issues a statement dismissing claims made by Netanyahu’s Likud party about voter fraud at Arab-Israeli polling stations.
“Given that the counting (of votes) has just begun, there is definitely no basis for unfounded rumours about supposed ‘forgeries’ in one community or another,” the committee says.
Netanyahu shared a video on Twitter with alleged attempts at voter fraud at a polling station, saying Likud has received a number of reports of violence from Balad party activists against local voting coordinators.
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu reacts to the three exit polls showing he will be able to form a coalition, saying “it’s a good start.”
Showing cautious optimism, Netanyahu says that the “real count” isn’t over.
The first of what could be many exit poll updates tonight is due from Israel’s public broadcaster at the top of the hour.
That’s less than ten minutes from now.
Ayelet Shaked’s right-wing Jewish Home party fails to enter parliament, according to the three TV exit polls.
Shaked had sworn allegiance to Netanyahu, but was met with fierce criticism from his Likud party and the rest of his bloc for refusing to withdraw from elections despite all polls revealing she didn’t have enough votes to pass the electoral threshold.
Shaked is currently interior minister and also served as justice minister under Netanyahu from 2015-2019.
A reminder from Haaretz‘s Anshel Pfeffer that Israeli exit polls are often revised – and this time, it could happen rather quickly.
As it stands, the Arab party Balad has not gathered enough votes to win seats in the Knesset, but it is reportedly teetering on the edge. If it did, that would be to Benjamin Netanyahu’s detriment.
The pollsters on both Channels 11 and 12 saying now that Balad is inching closer to the threshold (about 10 thousand votes away) and that will change the overall picture to 60-60. I won’t be surprised if we see other changes to the initial exit polls. It will go down to the wire>
— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) November 1, 2022
This election is not over yet.
A senior source in the Arab-Israeli parties Hadash and Ta’al tells Jewish News that the party is deeply concerned about the rise of the far-right, with exit polls showing it will be the third biggest party in parliament.
The source said Hadash and Ta’al are waiting for final results for tomorrow, but that they are happy that exit polls show they will pass the electoral threshold.
The broadcasters are all showing a surge for the far-right Religious Zionist party.
Channel 11 is predicting it will win 15 seats, while Channels 12 and 13 are both forecasting 14 seats.
If this plays out in the actual results, the Kahanist movement Jewish Power under Itamar Ben-Gvir will command around six or seven seats in the Knesset.
His party is running alongside that of Bezalel Smotrich. Together, they are on course to become the third-largest bloc in the Knesset.
Here’s a reminder of how Jewish News responded to the prospect of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich attaining ministerial power in Israel:
Israeli voters have returned the pro-Netanyahu bloc to power, according to the first exit polls.
Here are what the broadcasters are predicting as of 10pm local time.
Israel’s broadcasters are preparing themselves for their big exit poll reveal at the top of the hour…
The polls will close in half an hour, at which point Israel’s main broadcasters will put out their exit polls.
For those more familiar with the exit poll after British elections, which tends to be a collaboration between the BBC, ITV and Sky, you’re in for an unsettling moment.
In Israel, the broadcasters do their own exit polls and they can differ wildly from each other — and from the actual results.
We’ll have all three exit polls here so we can all start chewing over the numbers.
As soon as possible after 10pm (8pm UK time), Jewish News will share a graphic like this one so you can crunch the numbers for yourselves.
The number of Israelis who turned out to vote today could become the story of this election.
As of 8pm local time, the share of votes cast had reached 66.3% – a level higher than any election held since 1999.
There’s a little over half an hour to go before the polls close and the broadcasters release their exit polls.
A senior source in the Arab-Israeli parties, Hadash and Ta’al tells Jewish News that there has been a big jump in voter turnout in the community in the past hours.
“We have about 45% turnout as of 7:30 PM, which is significantly higher than expected. But because the overall voter turnout in the rest of the country is bad for us,” the source says.
Voter turnout in Israeli elections continue to be the highest since 1999, with the The Central Elections Committee reporting that 57.7% voted as of 6 p.m. Israel time.
Life coach Jamie Gould, originally from Newcastle but now living in the central Israeli city of Ra’anana, also thought he was going to vote for Lapid, but changed his mind at the last minute.
“I ended up voting for Benny Gantz’s National Unity party. They are closer to me ideologically. I can see him teaming up with Lapid, making a strong centrist government. I hope it will end like that, rather than Likud, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir,” Gould said.
Ariel Radzinski, a UK immigration advisor from London and now living in the central Israeli city of Petah Tikva, told Jewish News he will vote for Likud, but not because of Netanyahu.
“I vote Likud purely for ideological reasons. I think Israel needs good security now and its economy needs to be straightened up. And I believe Likud is the only one that can do the job, as they have done in the past,” Radzinski said.
” I’m what you call a proud Zionist, and I think Israel should take care of itself and not bow to outside parties.”
Arab-Israeli lawmaker Aida Touma-Sliman from the Hadash-Ta’al list says the parties are in danger of not crossing the electoral threshold due to low voter turnout in the community.
Reaching out to “Jewish partners”, Touma-Sliman says that according to the current rate of voting “Hadash-Ta’al is in real danger of not passing the threshold.”
“For the first time in 74 years, there is a real chance that the clearest voice against the occupation and for Arab-Jewish partnership will disappear from the Knesset,” she says.
Jewish News has been speaking to British citizens now permanently based in Israel to gauge how they voted in today’s election – and the result is across the political spectrum.
Playwright and arts journalist James Inverne from the central Israeli city Modiin, says he will “desperately” vote for Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, calling Netanyahu a leader who “seems to only be worried about his personal trials.”
Senior Likud official Danny Danon shared with Jewish News his party’s plans to form a coalition in case the Netanyahu bloc fails to reach 61 seats.
“In case we don’t get 61 seats we will approach other lawmakers from other parties to join us. I am confident that the national camp will lead Israel in the coming years,” Danon says.
Danon, who is also the former Israeli ambassador to the UN, still believes Likud will emerge victorious tonight.
“I have no doubt that the Likud voters will stay loyal to the party and that we will be able to celebrate victory tonight,” Danon says.
Jewish News foreign editor Jotam Confino steps away from this rolling election blog to share some election day insights with GB News. Lovely view from his rooftop as the sun begins to set in Tel Aviv. Sorry we screengrabbed you with your eyes closed, Jotam.
Right, back to work…
Watch: #Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid votes in Tel Aviv, urging the electorate to cast their ballot in the country’s fifth #election in four years.https://t.co/1oZTl6pD7l pic.twitter.com/Z14TuzMsxf
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) November 1, 2022
Israeli divers in Eilat placed a ballot box in the shark pool. There’s an election/shark joke to be made I’m sure… https://t.co/9Oiscv2upg
— Aviva Klompas (@AvivaKlompas) November 1, 2022
Ofer Cassif, Jewish lawmaker from the Arab-Israeli Hadash party, tells Jewish News that they won’t support a government headed by Lapid or anyone else as long as they don’t meet the party’s conditions.
According to every poll conducted in the past couple of weeks, Lapid would need support from Hadash and Ta’al to form a government, not necessarily as part of the coalition, but with their support from the outside. Cassif, however, rules out this possibility.
“We are the last bulwark against full-fledged fascism, but we are also a political movement, so we won’t sacrifice our values just because someone needs our support,” Cassif says.
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu is touring the coastal city of Ashdod to increase voter turnout which he claims has been low in Likud strongholds throughout the day.
“Go out and vote Likud to remove Gantz-Lapid-Abbas. Enough!,” Netanyahu tweeted.
ביבי-בא למלחה. צאו, הצביעו מחל. pic.twitter.com/aBRDr0hXYx
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) November 1, 2022
Controversial MK Itamar Ben Gvir has cast his vote in the Israeli settlement of Kiryat Arba.
Ben-Gvir, who boasted about “getting at” Yitzhak Rabin weeks before the late prime minister’s murder and openly praises Baruch Goldstein, is vying for a ministerial role in a future government.
The actual mechanics of voting is different in Israel compared to what we are accustomed to in the UK.
No stubby pencils and marks in a box for them: instead, there put slips of paper into an envelope.
Here’s a 30-second video to explain it:
Ayman Odeh, the leader of the Arab-Israeli Hadash party, claims that Likud bots are attacking his official Facebook page in an attempt to suppress Arab voter turnout.
“Hundreds of copy paste comments from Google Translate are trying, in vain, to suppress votes for Hadash-Ta’al,” Odeh says.
The party leader posted a screenshot of a comment made by a user named Ahmed Ahmed, saying in Arabic “we will not vote for you.”
The party leaders are rushing around the country to get out the vote before polling stations close at 10pm.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the Yesh Atid party leader is hoping to hang onto his job once the results come in tonight.
He started the day with a visit to the graveside of his father.
As he voted, he told reporters: “Go and vote today for the future of our children and the future of our country. Vote well and good luck to us all.”
That was a play on the name of his party, Yesh Atid, which means “there is a future”.
Here he is meeting supporters young and old later on Tuesday in the neighbourhood of Ramat Aviv, northwest of Tel Aviv.
Here’s Israel’s president Isaac Herzog visiting the Central Elections Committee, the body that it running today’s election for 120 Knesset seats.
Seven years ago, Herzog was running as Labour leader and the main opposition candidate against Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister.
He lost that election, but now that he is president he might find himself inviting Netanyahu to form the next government.
This morning, his message was based entirely around encouraging Israelis to vote.
“I call again on the entire public: go vote and make a difference, because each vote has an impact. I want to wish all citizens of Israel a successful Election Day and good luck to everyone.”
The Central Election Committee has put out the turnout figures in this election as of midday Israeli time – which was a little under two hours ago.
That figure is 28.4%, which is markedly higher than recent elections. The highest since 1999, says Lahav Harkov from the Jerusalem Post.
Voter turnout at 12 pm was 28.4%, the highest since 1999
— Lahav Harkov (@LahavHarkov) November 1, 2022
Here’s how it looks against every previous election since 2015.
There is, of course, plenty of time to go yet.
A senior source in the Arab parties, Hadash and Ta’al, tells Jewish News that the voter turnout in the Arab-Israel community is very low, causing great concern for the parties.
“An early indication that is yet to be published shows that voter participation in the Jewish population is so far three times higher than that of the Arab population. We are deeply concerned by that,” the source says.
Experts in Israel have predicted that a low voter turnout in the Arab-Israeli community could mean that Balad party, in particular, would have a hard time passing the 3,25% electoral threshold
This would also mean that the lost votes would have a direct impact on Netanyahu’s Likud party, tipping the balance in his favor and securing the 61 seats he needs to form a coalition.
The election authorities say turnout as of 10am was 15.9%.
That is not just the highest turnout at this point in any election since Israel’s current political crisis began – it’s the highest in 40 years.
It’s early hours yet, but it is a suggestion that Israeli voters are more engaged in this election than previous rounds.
Senior Likud official tells Jewish News that the party is “quite optimistic” about the election result.
“Everyone is quite optimistic because we feel that our right-wing supporters will come out and vote. That’s very important for us,” Netanyahu confidant Micki Zohar says.
Likud is currently competing with the far-right Religious Zionism party over the same voters.
Netanyahu is warning that if people vote for Religious Zionism instead of Likud, the prospects of them forming a coalition after elections will shrink, since Likud needs to be the biggest party in the Knesset to get a shot at forming a coalition first.
It is, however, not always the case that the biggest party gets a shot at trying to form a coalition first. The President hands the mandate to whoever he thinks will have the best chance of receiving the support from at least 61 lawmakers.
Voting has been underway now for nearly five hour.
The polling stations opened at 7am (5am in the UK) in most areas, except for a few more remote stations where voting began an hour later.
People have until 10pm tonight to cast their ballots, at which point the broadcasters will release their exit polls and the counting will begin.
Here we go again.
Good morning from London and good afternoon from Tel Aviv. For the fifth time in less than four years, Israelis are trudging to the polls to see if they can finally crack their protracted political crisis.
Jewish News begins its rolling coverage of it all right now in the hope of helping you make sense of it all.
My colleague Jotam Confino is on the ground in Israel, while I’ll be driving our coverage from a rather sodden North London.
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