OPINION: Reasonableness has passed… so what could happen next?
Will Israel's government now re-appoint Shas leader Aryeh Deri or cancel the Supreme Court's ability to override legislation?
The annulling of the reasonability clause was a transformational moment in Israeli politics. Despite the sustained and unprecedented mass protests – along with warnings from a plethora of former senior officials, and last-minute efforts to reach a compromise – the government cancelled the court’s use of reasonability.
The day after reasonability law passed, Israel was served a reminder as to its inter-connectivity to the world economy, when three prestigious international institutions released negative statements.
Perhaps most significantly, the markets seemed to respond to the Israeli government appearing to fall short of its commitment to only pass these reforms with a broad agreement, in a measured way and at a slower pace.
The image of the week was Defence Minister Gallant arguing with Justice Minister Levin, with Prime Minister Netanyahu sat quietly in-between. This exchange took place in the Knesset just prior to the vote, with Gallant appealing to Levin to soften the wording of the law; “just give me something” he pleaded.
That exchange can also be seen as a metaphor for a lack of clarity on where this government will go next. To be clear, despite coalition discipline holding out and winning the vote sixty-four to zero, there is no unity among the government.
On the one hand the radicals see the reasonability law as part one, or ‘the first course’ of the set of reforms outlined by Minister Levin at the beginning of the year.
For them, the next stages include: changing the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee; cancelling the court’s ability to override legislation; changing the status of ministerial legal advisors (so they are beholden to the minister and not independent).
In addition, other measures could also include removing the automatic seniority of the President of the Supreme Court, lowering the retirement age of judges and splitting the role of the Attorney General.
Another question will be if and when the government wants to test the reasonability clause. This could be tested by reappointing recidivist (convicted criminal) Shas leader Aryeh Deri (the court ruled earlier this year that his appointment was ‘extremely unreasonable’, as he was twice convicted of tax violations), or even firing the attorney general, who has blocked numerous outlandish proposals emanating from this government.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeated his commitment (including to President Biden) from now on to only advance further reforms with a national consensus. Supporting Netanyahu, there are a handful of pragmatic Likud MKs who also recognise the damage caused to the IDF (in unity and preparedness), to the economy, and to Israel’s image abroad.
The protest movement also faces a dilemma how to maintain its momentum when at least for the next two months there will no more initiatives; can it afford to relent and if need be return?
- Richard Pater is Chief Executive of BICOM and a political analyst based in Jerusalem
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