OPINION: The war in Gaza won’t end without a plan for Hamas’s defeat
Israel has escalated military pressure, but without a long-term plan Gaza’s future remains dangerously uncertain
Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author
Operation Strength and Sword has just commenced and with it, a new and potentially bloody phase of the war in Gaza. Israel has carried out strikes that have targeted Hamas commanders, political figures and a variety of terrorist assets.
The fragile ceasefire has unravelled, as was always likely in the absence of an agreement over the return of hostages. Hamas collapsed that ceasefire by ruling out an extension to the first phase which was being negotiated with the help of US special envoy to the Mideast, Steve Witkoff.
Witkoff’s bridge proposal was to extend phase one for several weeks during which five live hostages would be released in return for Palestinian prisoners and a period of calm during religious holidays. It was the US envoy who warned that Hamas’s rejection was a ‘non-starter’ and that severe consequences would occur as a result. Those consequences are now being felt.
It seems that Netanyahu made a grave mistake two weeks ago. After the end of Phase One, Israel took no action while Hamas continued to hold hostages in dire conditions. It was the exact opposite of the Prime Minister’s commitment to force concessions from the enemy while subjecting them to intense military pressure.
It is true that talks for the second phase were supposed to start on February 3 but Israel felt that the demands made by Hamas, namely a full withdrawal from Gaza and ending the war, were too high. In addition, there were domestic obstacles within Israel to implementing a phase 2 negotiation, namely the threat that some far right coalition partners would leave the government.
That is why a second phase was always a non-starter because it meant both sides accepting impossible compromises. It kicked the can down the road for the sake of a temporary pause in hostilities.
That mistake has now been rectified as Israel has announced that from this moment on, hostage negotiations will take place with the terror group under fire. Doubtless, Israel will hope that these strikes will force Hamas’s hands, paving the way for a full release of hostages and a long term settlement in Gaza.
Another key reason for the renewed offensive should not be ignored. Reportedly, intelligence showed how Hamas had used the break in hostilities to renew, regroup and rearm with reports that the Islamists had recruited thousands of people to join their ranks.
One political solution is provided by the Egyptian five-year reconstruction plan. During an interim phase overseen by a committee of technocrats under the PA, cleaning and construction would start in the shattered enclave
This reminds us that the most important goals of this war are to dismantle Hamas’s military and political capabilities in Gaza and to ensure the long term security of Israel’s borders. For as long as Israel faces a genocidal, Islamist organisation on neighbouring territory, Israelis will not feel secure.
At the same time, the war cannot end without a political solution which envisages a new governing entity in Gaza. Israel has not put forward a ‘day after’ plan for the enclave, a major strategic error that has been much criticised within the Israeli security establishment.
One political solution is provided by the Egyptian five-year reconstruction plan. During an interim phase overseen by a committee of technocrats under the PA, cleaning and construction would start in the shattered enclave.
This would be followed by a programme of reconstruction at a cost of $20 billion followed by a third phase in which a technocratic committee would oversee humanitarian aid and political governance.
While the plan has some merits, it suffers from a fatal flaw, namely that it does not explain how Hamas will be removed or what specific mechanisms exist to disarm the terrorists.
Based on past behaviour, Hamas is as likely to slink into oblivion as President Putin is to agreeing reasonable terms for a Ukraine ceasefire.
Moreover, if Hamas remains in charge, it will funnel money, concrete and other assets into rebuilding its terror infrastructure.
If the political solution is to work, there must be a renewed focus on the region’s security and, specifically, on how Hamas’s terrorist and military infrastructure can be removed from the enclave. Without it, no plan for Gaza is viable and the war will continue.
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