OPINION: Where will this ceasefire lead?
Hamas must be dealt with decisively for the sake of stability in the Middle East
Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author
Three young Israeli girls – Emily Damari, Romi Gonen and Doron Steinbrecher – have returned home after their hellish ordeal in Gaza. That is wonderful news and it has justly merited celebration and relief, albeit tempered by the knowledge that dozens more Israelis still languish in captivity. Time will tell whether they will all be freed.
At the same time, many Israelis are truly horrified at the demands made by Hamas, ones to which Israel capitulated under intense US pressure. The ceasefire plan will potentially see over 1,900 Palestinians freed from Israeli jails, many of whom are serving life sentences for murder.
They include members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, organisations dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Many have committed horrific atrocities that have left a trail of grieving victims across Israel. These victims can only shudder at the sense of injustice they are now facing.
There is a clear incentive for future attacks against Israelis, especially involving hostage taking, given all the evidence which suggests that those who are released show little remorse for their past crimes.
Moreover, the ceasefire envisages that Israel will withdraw its forces from Gaza, abandoning the positions and strategic advantages it has obtained and leaving Hamas terrorists to control the territory.
One of the most appalling images from last Sunday was the sight of Hamas gunmen, armed with automatic weapons, surrounding the three Israeli hostages as they were being handed to the Red Cross. It was a staged event designed to showcase Hamas ‘victory’, even though they have suffered enormous losses.-
But it was also a clear sign that the terror group intends to remain in the enclave, ready to rearm and rebuild its strength with renewed vigour. So much for Netanyahu’s oft-spoken promises of achieving ‘total victory’ against Hamas.
The question is why Israel agreed to do a deal that appears to end the war in such uncertain terms. There are at least two answers. Opinion polling shows firstly that an agreement to return hostages is popular in Israel, with up to 70% of Israelis in favour. As in 2011 with the deal to return Gilad Shalit, Netanyahu knew that he was pushing at an open door with this decision.
The second reason can be summed up in two words: Donald Trump. It seems there was a secret understanding about the war between Netanyahu and Trump’s team of officials in the days before the ceasefire.
Statements made by figures such as Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for Defence Secretary, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz suggest that Hamas can play no role in the future of Gaza and that the cycle of hostage taking and lop-sided prisoner exchanges must end. Netanyahu may have taken this, perhaps mistakenly, as a green light for Israel to pursue Hamas after the initial stage of the ceasefire.
There may also be a secret understanding about how the US will support an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, a move that would deal a fatal blow to the Islamic Republic and its evil machinations. Of course, we do not know the precise details of such understandings and the trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy is not clear at this stage.
But one thing is clear. Hamas will feel like they have secured victory in this war by the mere fact of their survival. If given the chance, they will use the coming months to start regrouping and regaining their strength. They will take over positions abandoned by the IDF and surely use materials that flood Gaza to rebuild their shattered empire of terror. Their desire to destroy Israel remains undimmed.
If there is an understanding that Hamas must be removed in Gaza, either through military force or via a long-term political transition to the PA, it might justify what otherwise seems like a highly unwise move.
But if no such understanding exists, if the ceasefire is merely the beginning of a return to the status quo on 6th October, it will portend considerable danger for Israel and the region.
- Jeremy Havardi, freelance journalist and author
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