Two-in-five British Jews will be strictly-Orthodox by 2040, new study finds

Nearly a quarter of Jews around the world will be strictly-Orthodox by 2040, according to a new study that projects the population will double in size in less than two decades.

It found the number of global Charedim will soar from around 2.1 million today, driven both by high fertility and low mortality rates in the communities.

The fast growth rate means that by 2040 two in every five British Jews will be strictly-Orthodox, it added.

The Institute for Jewish Policy Research said its report was the first time that new methods of calculation have been used to estimate the future Jewish population.

JPR director Jonathan Boyd said the rapid growth of the Charedi population was “changing the nature of the Jewish world”.

He said: “It has significant implications for how Jewishness is understood and seen going forward, both by Jews and others, and it has to be understood fully to ensure that the needs of the growing Charedi community are met in terms of housing, education and other community services.

“Community leaders need to pay much more attention to these demographic dynamics, and start preparing for what is likely to be a very different future.”

The Pinter Trust, a new body representing strictly-Orthodox populations across Britain, said the findings gave a clear picture that “Torah observant Jewry is strong and growing.”

According to the JPR report, which was written by research fellow Daniel Staetsky, the strictly-Orthodox community will grow by an annual rate of 3.5% — against just 0.2% for non-Charedim populations.

At that rate Charedi Jews would account for 23% of the total Jewish population of the world.

It finds the vast majority — 92% — of strictly-Orthodox Jews currently live in Israel and the United States, with just 5% based in Europe.

At 35%, Belgium has the third-largest share of Charedim among its Jewish population, but the UK’s 75,000-strong community is larger in terms of population, accounting for a quarter of all British Jews today.

The report said that share is expected to grow: “The United Kingdom can be expected to reach, and perhaps even rise above, the status of Belgium today: by 2040, the Charedi segment is expected to constitute 40% of the British Jewish population.”

JPR acknowledged there is “an inherent issue” with population projections because they assume different rates of Charedi and non-Charedi growth will remain as they are today, ignoring political, cultural and technological developments that could impact fertility or mortality.

But it adds: “in this case, we are on relatively safe ground. Twenty years is less than a demographic generation and it can be reasonably assumed that significant changes during this length of time are unlikely.”

Joel Friedman of the Pinter Trust said: “The JPR’s research gives a clear picture of the future of global Jewry and shows that, despite the ongoing challenges, Torah observant Jewry is strong and growing.

“It is therefore important that the community has a voice on matters of relevance.

“Through the Pinter Trust, which is led and endorsed by rabbinic authorities, we seek to proactively engage with stakeholders across the country giving them an accurate and reliable insight into the thriving UK Charedi community.”