If Iran war drags into April, the antisemitic backlash will be catastrophic

Within the last week, we have seen attacks on synagogues in the United States, Canada, Norway and Belgium. In the UK, Jewish schoolchildren had Nazi-grade abuse thrown at them while playing a football match, while a Jewish music producer was pushed in front of an oncoming car by a man shouting “Heil Hitler” and that “you should all die”.

And I fear things could be about to get a lot worse, if the US and Israel do not strike a knockout blow to the Iranian regime this month.

To understand why, it’s worth briefly discussing the knock-on effect of the current war in the Middle East, which has now been raging for two weeks. A significant percentage of the world’s oil supply travels out from the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz – on Iran’s doorstep. If the regime continues to effectively block shipping through the straits – via naval, aerial or missile attack – no oil will travel through, drastically limiting international supply, and sending prices soaring. This will not merely affect how much people pay for petrol – it will affect all products, because if transportation and supply costs soar, companies will in turn raise prices, passing on at least some of that additional expense to consumers.

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In an age where the economy is globalised, a major regional war halfway around the world can impact how much you can afford to put in your supermarket trolley. Four years ago, prices rose across the board after Russia invaded Ukraine. They have not greatly fallen since, stretching the budget of some of the less well off in our society to breaking point and beyond.

The difference between these two wars, however, will be clearest in its knock-on effects. Despite the continued savagery of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are not regular demonstrations on the streets of London (or even outside the Russian embassy) in support of Ukraine. The initial goldfish-like celebrity fascination with Ukraine has largely faded. Nor are there regular attacks on Russian businesses or Russian orthodox churches in this country – or indeed any country in the West.

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The same cannot be said of Israel. Western support for Israel is already at its lowest ebb for many decades. In America, the far right and the far left have synchronised their “anti-Zionist” conspiracy theories – the only difference is that the right are slightly more eager to specifically use the word “Jew”. Attacks on Jews worldwide have skyrocketed since 7 October, 2023.

Now throw in the distinct possibility that the Iran war goes beyond, say, the next three weeks. At that point, the likelihood of significant price rises on a wide range of goods across the Western world becomes almost certain. This is a war launched by both America and Israel, with America as the senior partner – but a look at social media shows that it is not just conspiracy theorists but average men and women who are now openly expressing the view that in reality, this war is all Israel – that Donald Trump is somehow subservient to the whims and wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu. If the war fails to achieve its (somewhat unclear) objectives rapidly, while the Western world may blame Trump as a leader, it will not blame America as a country. The same will not be true of Israel.

Western support for Israel is already at its lowest ebb for many decades. In America, the far right and the far left have synchronised their “anti-Zionist” conspiracy theories

There is a long history of Jews being used as a scapegoat when countries experience economic downturns. The most obvious example, of course, is Germany, where the Nazis came to power less than four years after the Great Depression. The inference here, however, will be easier than ever to reach for. “Israel did this”, the politicians will howl, before their inevitable expressions of horror and condemnation when people translate that as “the Jews did this”, and act accordingly.

As with every war Israel has ever fought dating back to 1948, there is a strong argument that it was not of its own choosing. The Iranian regime has spent decades, untold energy and countless billions to achieve one of its core aims – Israel’s destruction. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis – all of these groups and more have been trained, armed and financed by the Ayatollah’s regime. Such is the cartoon-villain nature of the Iranian regime’s hatred that they quite literally erected a giant clock in a Tehran square supposedly counting down the days until Israel’s destruction. To ignore that is to ignore reality.

If the Iranian regime did not know about the 7 October attacks prior to them taking place, they laid all the groundwork for them to happen and their ultimate vision is for Israel in its entirety to experience such massacres. Days after the massacre, the regime’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, visited Qatar to embrace Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and congratulate him in person for the “Al Aqsa Flood” operation. Both men are now dead, as are most of Hamas and, indeed, most of the Iranian high command.

According to this reading of the conflict, after decades of sustaining rocket fire from north and south, after efforts to maintain an uneasy peace, 7 October flicked a switch in the Israeli psyche. The Iranian regime forced Israel’s hand, finally pushing it too far. Historians may yet look back upon that day as the beginning, not of Israel’s destruction, but that of the palsied, diseased theocratic grip of the Ayatollahs.

But the above explanation of Israel’s actions will not help Jews in the diaspora. The people throwing abuse, punches or firebombs will not be interested in such explanations. And neither, increasingly, will those getting hit in their wallets – people who find themselves struggling even more to pay their bills or afford basic amenities. And you would not believe how easy it will be to sell people on the notion that Israel is the cause of all their misfortune.

After all, a phalanx of some of the most dishonest and disingenuous people on the planet – from podcasters to presenters to politicians – have been doing it non-stop for the last few years. Does a rise in general antisemitic violence elsewhere in the world compare to the situation Israelis currently find themselves in – one of a life lived in shelters and the fear of cluster bombs? No – indeed, many of us have family members in those shelters. But the situation for diaspora Jews should not be ignored, even within Israel, because the political climate in Western countries – particularly in America – is also shifting. There is a distinct possibility that Donald Trump will be the last US president that Israel will be able to view as a friend.

As I write this, news broke on social media that there was an active shooter situation at a synagogue in Michigan. Thank God, no one was hurt. But if this war does not end within the next few weeks, I fear this is just the beginning.