Poll predicts Labour election landslide including in seats with large Jewish vote
Final YouGov MRP poll predicts senior Jewish Conservatives including Grant Shapps and Lucy Frazer could lose their seats as Brits go to the polls on Thursday
Lee Harpin is the Jewish News's political editor
Labour are on track to win a landslide victory in tomorrow’s general election, including in at least two of the three seats in Barnet, according to the final YouGov MRP poll.
The last large-scale poll by the respected firm of the election campaign predicted sweeping victories for Keir Starmer’s party in the Chipping Barnet and Hendon seats, while suggesting the Finchley and Golders Green result was on a knife-edge.
Overall it predicted Labour would win 431 seats, giving Starmer a landslide majority of 212, while the Tories would be reduced to to just 102 MPs.
If correct it would give Labour the largest majority since 1832.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win 72, with Reform UK on three and the Green Party on two. The SNP are forecast to win 18 seats.
According to YouGov polling, 89 seats remain “tossups”.
PM Rishi Sunak said he was still “campaigning hard to win every seat” on the eve of the July 4 election, while Starmer continued to urge those wanted “change” to get out and vote for his party.
Party insiders were keen to play down the vote percent figures shown in the You Gov poll on the eve of the election.
In Chipping Barnet and Hendon, under this projection Labour would secure easy victories in both Chipping Barnet and Hendon seats.
Labour challenger Dan Tomlinson takes on former Tory minister Theresa Villiers in Chipping Barnet, while in Hendon David Pinto Duschinsky is batting Tory candidate Ameet Jogia.
The poll predicts sizeable wins for Labour in both seats, although party sources claimed on Wednesday that on doorsteps the result is closer.
But in Finchley and Golders Green the poll suggested Tory candidate Alex Deane would secure 34% while Sarah Sackman for Labour would get 33%.
But the same poll appeared to suggest the Lib Dems would secure 20%, based on a baseline figure taken from Luciana Berger’s performance for the party after she stood for them in 2019.
Ahead of Thursday’s election Labour and Tory sources told Jewish News that they believed “all three seats were still in play” in Barnet, with its substantial Jewish electorate likely to play a key role in determining the result.
The final You Gov also predicted sweeping victories for Labour in Bury South, home to a large Jewish community in Greater Manchester.
Some of the biggest names in Conservative politics would lose their seats in the election under this projection, including Jewish cabinet ministers Lucy Frazer, Grant Shapps and former minister Robert Jenrick, along with Theresa Villiers in Chipping Barnet.
Potentially 16 of the 26 cabinet ministers still standing could go, including the chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
In Hertsmere, the poll predicts that deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden is likely to hold the seat, despite a challenge from Jewish Labour candidate Josh Tapper.
The poll also suggests victories are in store for a new influx of Jewish Labour candidates including Josh Simons, Georgia Gould, David Pinto Duschinsky and Matthew Patrick.
The Board of Deputies could also find itself with a representative in parliament.
Peter Prinsley, standing in the former Tory stronghold of Bury St Edmunds is predicted to tie with the Tory candidate at the moment, according to the poll.
In Islington North, the YouGov predicts a victory for Labour candidate Praful Nargund over Jeremy Corbyn in a close run battle.
In Chingford and Woodford Green, former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith is also predicated to lose the seat to Shama Tatler, a Jewish Labour Movement ally, with Faiza Shaheen coming a creditable third.
Anthony Wells, head of political research at YouGov, said: “The Conservatives have spent much of the election campaign warning about the risks of a Labour landslide victory. This poll suggests that it has not had any significant impact. If anything it has got worse for the Conservatives.”
The poll, based on interviews with more than 40,000 people across the country, put the Tories on 22 per cent, Labour on 39 per cent and Reform UK on 15 per cent.
In a further boost for Starmer on Wednesday The Sun newspaper backed Labour for the first time since 2005, saying “it’s time for a change”.
The Rupert Murdoch-owned paper endorsed the party under Tony Blair but has become a staunch critic in recent years.
In an editorial outlining its position, it says the Tories are “exhausted” and said Starmer had succeeded in fighting antisemitism which it said was now “largely gone” from the party.
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