LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026: Will the Jewish vote swing Barnet?

The local elections are fast approaching, and in Barnet – where approximately 15 percent of the borough’s population is Jewish – the community may once again prove pivotal in determining the outcome on 7 May.

There was little doubt that in 2022, the Jewish vote played a role when Labour, under veteran Barry Rawlings, secured a majority at the town hall for the first time since the borough’s creation in 1965.

Keir Starmer, then leader of the opposition, visited Barnet at dawn after polling day, hailing the victory as evidence that his efforts to win back Jewish voters after the “dark days of Jeremy Corbyn” were succeeding.

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Despite the celebrations, later analysis showed Labour’s vote share grew by only about 4% compared to 2018 – small margins that can make all the difference in Barnet.

While overall turnout in Barnet’s local elections typically hovers below 40 percent, estimates suggest that in wards with larger Jewish populations, turnout can reach a more significant 60 percent.

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As one of the country’s most politically engaged communities, Barnet’s Jewish voters consistently attract special attention from political parties, who tailor their campaign messages and organise events with community leaders hoping to win support.

This year, however, the local elections unfold against a backdrop of anxiety for many Jewish residents.

Tory Party leader Kemi Badenoch – who polls indicate enjoys greater popularity among Jewish voters than the broader electorate – will be hoping her firm support for Israel and firm stance on antisemitism bolster her party’s local prospects.

A recent spate of arson attacks on synagogues, more than two years of heightened hostility toward Israel, ongoing war in the Middle East, and a pervasive sense of fear and insecurity have left the community on “red alert.”

Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics predicts the Conservatives could reclaim control of Barnet this time.

“It’s a Conservative/Labour marginal, and given what we know about the swing between those parties, the Tories are likely to win it back,” he says, adding, “But Reform are likely to win some seats.”

A YouGov poll published this week also predicted victory for the Conservatives.

Despite forecasts of a Conservative resurgence, Labour insiders who spoke privately to Jewish News remain optimistic about their chances of retaining the borough.

Boundary changes have eroded some Conservative strongholds, while demographic shifts may favour Labour.

Local party insiders contend that, despite dire national polling, Barnet’s Labour councillors enjoy support that has eluded the Prime Minister.

While Conservative supporters may turnout in high numbers in seats that have traditionally favoured the party, Labour activists still believe their support will show up elsewhere, almost certainly in reduced numbers, to ensure victory in other seats in Barnet.

Then there is the added impact of the resurgent Reform UK and Green Party to consider.

It should be remembered in 2022 the political landscape was very different and in Barnet the Greens failed to make significant breakthroughs and  Reform UK did not even contest the election.

Now, Barnet Reform leaders claim Nigel Farage’s party will make major gains across the borough, with candidates targeting Jewish voters disillusioned by both main parties’ records on antisemitism and immigration.

For the Conservatives, Dean Cohen – standing again in Golders Green, one of the most religiously Orthodox wards in the country – is confident his party is poised to retake the council, citing security, cost of living, education, and housing as key doorstep issues.

Cohen, continuing a family tradition of public service as a councillor established by his late father and former Barnet mayor Melvin, says: “The Jewish community is under unprecedented attack – both nationally, with rising antisemitism, and locally, where two arson attacks on community buildings in the last month, coupled with the murder in Manchester, have shaken the community badly.

“Since the 7 October attacks and the antisemitic marches in London, I established the Jewish Conservative Alliance to address the concerns of many in the community and to advocate to both the former and current government.

“The Labour government’s stance on Israel and its perceived weakness on antisemitism is a massive issue for many of my residents.”

Addressing those turning away from the Peter Zinkin-led local Tory Group and considering a vote for Reform UK, Cohen adds: “We understand the community’s frustrations and the temptation of voting Reform. However, the Conservative Party has consistently stood up for and supported the community over many years—in government and opposition. In Barnet, we are fortunate to have the UK’s largest Jewish population, with scores of Jewish councillors elected as Conservatives who truly understand what the community needs.”

Currently, Barnet Council comprises 40 Labour, 20 Conservative, and 3 unaffiliated councillors. Many seats are historically split along party lines, but the 2026 contest remains unpredictable.

Mill Hill, with 15 candidates, is a case in point.

Local jeweller Avi Benezra is among the Reform candidates standing there; Nicole Ereira, also Jewish, is the Tory candidate, while Labour’s Adam Langleben – another familiar communal figure – hopes to do well for his party.

Ella Rose-Jacobs, also standing again in Whetstone, is eager to highlight the Labour Group’s achievements since 2022.

“The Conservatives ran Barnet on the back burner, with no ambition for our wonderful borough,” she tells Jewish News.

“They left behind a legacy of cuts, depleted reserves, and services outsourced to Capita. Labour has been ambitious for Barnet, and we’ve delivered.

“That’s why we’ve filled over 16,500 potholes—61 percent more than the Conservatives managed in power. We upgraded and expanded a CCTV system that previously wasn’t working 70% of the time.

“We have improved or rebuilt 20 playgrounds, secured 1,000 new council homes, and delivered much more – all while keeping council tax lower than all our neighbours.”

Rose-Jacobs, national chair of the Jewish Labour Movement, also emphasises Labour’s work to combat antisemitism. She says: “We know antisemitism is an ongoing issue, and I pay tribute to Cllr Sara Conway, our Cabinet Member for Community Safety, who has become Barnet’s Jewish mother. She’s worked day in, day out, with the police, Shomrim, CST, and the wider community to counter the rising scourge of antisemitism.”

On concerns within the community about Labour’s national stance on Israel, she adds: “Local elections are about who represents you locally, who works hard to keep streets clean, potholes filled, and services running. I’ll be voting for the people who do that best, and I’d encourage everyone to do the same.”

Meanwhile, Reform UK is aiming for significant gains across Barnet, particularly in Hendon and Mill Hill.

However, many believe Reform will siphon more votes from the Conservatives than from Labour. The 2023 Whetstone by-election illustrated this dynamic: Labour’s Ezra Cohen won, but the combined Tory and Reform vote outstripped Labour’s total.

Reform UK’s Barnet leader and Jewish candidate in Hendon West, Mark Shooter predicts a surge in support for Farage’s party.

“We’re seeing a very strong, positive response on the doorstep,” he tells Jewish News.

“We have 23 Jewish candidates out of 63, which is a tremendous testament to the support we’re building within the community—often beneath the surface. People are responding not just to Nigel Farage’s clear and consistent support for the Jewish community and Israel, but also to the belief that Reform can deliver locally.”

Shooter, who defected from the Tories to Reform in 2024 and became the party’s first Jewish councillor, insists the election is being driven by local concerns.

He says: “Barnet residents are paying more and getting less. People can see the decline in services—potholes, fly-tipping, and pressure on parking. We’re focused on practical solutions: fixing roads faster and more cost-effectively, offering up to 30 minutes of free high street parking to boost footfall, and creating additional parking capacity, including up to 100 extra spaces at Barnet Hospital for patients.”

He also rejects the idea that Reform is simply splitting the anti-Labour vote, saying: “The idea of ‘vote splitting’ is often used to defend the status quo.

“Voters are choosing Reform because they want change. What we’re seeing instead is fragmentation elsewhere, particularly on the left. This election is far more open than many assume, with a record number of candidates standing. In Barnet, if you vote Reform, you get Reform.”

“We’ve already shown our strength—in the recent Hendon by-election, we achieved over 30 percent in a ward we weren’t even targeting, while Labour fell into the low teens. That reflects a real shift in voter sentiment. Many residents feel the Conservatives and Labour have become too similar and disconnected from everyday concerns.”

Other sources told Jewish News, Reform had actually campaigned hard in the Hendon election, thinking they would win there.

And what of Zack Polanski’s Greens?

While neighbouring boroughs like Haringey, Brent, and Hackney appear fertile ground for a party dogged by allegations of antisemitism among its candidates, in Barnet, although the Green vote may rise, the likelihood of winning council seats remains limited.

The Greens appear to be focusing their efforts on Woodhouse ward in North Finchley and Friern Barnet, both previously won comfortably by Labour.

While younger, renting voters elsewhere in London are expected to support the Greens, Barnet’s substantial Jewish population is likely dissuaded by repeated and troubling reports of antisemitism within the party.

One local commentator, who asked not to be named, sought to sum up Barnet’s political geography.

“You know which bits are Tory and you know which bits of Barnet are Labour,” they said, pointing to wards like Hampstead Garden Suburb (staunchly Tory) and East Finchley (solidly Labour). Similar splits are seen in wards on the Hendon side of the borough.

Historically, key battlegrounds have included East Barnet and Brunswick Park.

In 2022, marginal wards included Barnet Vale, Brunswick Park, Childs Hill, East Barnet and Edgwarebury.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, once hopeful of success in Barnet, have shifted their main campaign efforts elsewhere in London and the south. Still, they hope to show an improved performance across the borough compared to the 2022 locals.

A spokesperson for Barnet Lib Dems said the party have “a strong track record in representing the communities we serve. ”

“We are really committed to listening to residents and making a real change,” they added. ” Our candidates are all community champions, who have volunteered in local neighbourhoods across Barnet: supporting young people getting into work, running foodbanks and helping local people with the cost of living.”

On concerns about the leadership’s heavy criticism of Israel they added:”As a party we  are strongly committed to a two-state solution, with Israel living in secure borders, free from the threat of terrorism, alongside an independent Palestinian State.

“The Barnet Liberal Democrats  have been in constant discussion with Liberal Democrat Friends of Israel who  work to encourage a strong understanding of Israel’s unique political situation as the only democracy in the Middle East.”

Jewish News contacted the Greens for comment, but no response was received by the time of publication.

As election day approaches, all parties recognise that Barnet’s engaged and influential Jewish community could once again prove decisive in determining the result at the polls.