New report says 2020 could see a second Arab Spring
Forecast by BICOM says the next 12 months will see Benjamin Netanyahu lose power and more upheaval in surrounding states
Next year, the crown will fall from Benjamin Netanyahu’s head and there will be the very real prospect of another ‘Arab Spring’ say Middle East analysts.
In a forecasting report published today, researchers at UK-Israel think tank BICOM said 2020 would be the year in which Israel’s prime minister finally loses power to his former Israel Defense Force (IDF) army chief, while Arab countries on Israel’s border will descend into chaos.
They said the likelihood of an “Arab Spring 2.0” emanates from civil strife in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran, a splintering war in Yemen, governance issues in Jordan and Egypt, and a controversial modernisation campaign in Saudi Arabia.
The report also recognises that Russia is now the dominant military power in the region, following its decisive intervention in Syria and Donald Trump’s US withdrawal, as evidenced by his decision to let Turkey clear Kurdish areas by force.
BICOM said Iran would tread water in the hope that Trump serves only one term, but noted how Tehran became far more aggressive midway through this year, attacking vital shipping lanes, US drones and Saudi Arabia’s oil installations.
While Israeli airstrikes against Iranian interests in Syria were expected to continue, regional watchers felt neither country wanted to risk escalating their conflict to all-out war.
However, Israel and its allies know Iran is well capable of defending itself with the new Hoveizeh cruise missile (with a range of 1,350km), the Dezful ballistic missile (1,000 km) and the Khorramshahr ballistic missile (up to 2,000 km).
- Read more – BICOM’s James Sorene: The Middle East in 2020
Of more concern to the IDF is Iran’s ambition of turning Yemen and Iraq into launch sites for missiles aimed at Israel. Both countries have vast swathes controlled by local forces loyal to Tehran. Iranian missiles stationed in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would present an overwhelming threat.
Domestically, BICOM said Netanyahu’s tenure would end in 2020, adding that a new leader – probably ex-IDF chief Benny Gantz – could rebuild trust with Israel’s neighbour Jordan, whose king’s patience Netanyahu has tested to the limit.
Following Israel’s next election on 2 March BICOM said there would be a unity government without Netanyahu.
Thank you for helping to make Jewish News the leading source of news and opinion for the UK Jewish community. Today we're asking for your invaluable help to continue putting our community first in everything we do.
For as little as £5 a month you can help sustain the vital work we do in celebrating and standing up for Jewish life in Britain.
Jewish News holds our community together and keeps us connected. Like a synagogue, it’s where people turn to feel part of something bigger. It also proudly shows the rest of Britain the vibrancy and rich culture of modern Jewish life.
You can make a quick and easy one-off or monthly contribution of £5, £10, £20 or any other sum you’re comfortable with.
100% of your donation will help us continue celebrating our community, in all its dynamic diversity...
Engaging
Being a community platform means so much more than producing a newspaper and website. One of our proudest roles is media partnering with our invaluable charities to amplify the outstanding work they do to help us all.
Celebrating
There’s no shortage of oys in the world but Jewish News takes every opportunity to celebrate the joys too, through projects like Night of Heroes, 40 Under 40 and other compelling countdowns that make the community kvell with pride.
Pioneering
In the first collaboration between media outlets from different faiths, Jewish News worked with British Muslim TV and Church Times to produce a list of young activists leading the way on interfaith understanding.
Campaigning
Royal Mail issued a stamp honouring Holocaust hero Sir Nicholas Winton after a Jewish News campaign attracted more than 100,000 backers. Jewish Newsalso produces special editions of the paper highlighting pressing issues including mental health and Holocaust remembrance.
Easy access
In an age when news is readily accessible, Jewish News provides high-quality content free online and offline, removing any financial barriers to connecting people.
Voice of our community to wider society
The Jewish News team regularly appears on TV, radio and on the pages of the national press to comment on stories about the Jewish community. Easy access to the paper on the streets of London also means Jewish News provides an invaluable window into the community for the country at large.
We hope you agree all this is worth preserving.