SPECIAL REPORT: Pennsylvanian Jews may hold sway on 5 November
Events in this Trump-vs-Harris battleground could make all the difference in the US election, writes Nathaniel Frum
For Democrats, the US election night maths is very simple. If Kamala Harris can win the state of Pennsylvania, and its 19 electoral votes, she will win the election. If not – probably not.
In the US, people don’t elect the president, states do. And among the groups that may play the largest role in swinging this ultimate swing state are Pennsylvania’s 300,000 Jews.
Pennsylvania is only the fifth largest state. But the election in the four largest is mostly a foregone conclusion. California and New York will go Democratic blue; Texas and Florida, Republican red. Pennsylvania could go either way.
Donald Trump won here by fewer than 45,000 votes in 2016, the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. In 2020, Joe Biden won by just over 80,000 votes. Polls have Trump and Harris in a dead heat in the state. A Democrat-commissioned poll had Harris up 72-25 percent among Jewish voters; independent polls have her support among Jewish voters lower than Biden’s in 2020.
Scranton Jewish Community Centre executive director Dan Cardonick says “both parties are working harder for the Jewish vote, there’s no question”.
While both sides accuse each other of antisemitic rhetoric, Cardonick points out Jewish voters in the key city feel “it’s a sad certainty that no matter who wins, antisemitism will still exist and we will still be faced with the challenges of combating it.” Cardonick says while he can’t discern who Jews in Lackawanna County will vote for, both campaigns are working harder than he has seen before to win the Jewish vote this November.
Historically, Pennsylvania Jewish voters have been solidly Democratic but Jews have suffered a notable rise in antisemitism and hate crimes, mostly stemming from bad actors from the far left.
Last month, two Jewish students at the University of Pittsburgh were attacked by a man wearing a keffiyeh while Temple University in Philadelphia saw a large pro-Palestinian march at the campus Hillel.
The University of Pennsylvania is facing a lawsuit for allegedly fostering an environment of antisemitism on campus and the US Anti Defamation League says antisemitic incidents skyrocketed after 7 October.
In Scranton, these incidents hit especially close to home. Last November, a Scranton man was killed in an incident with pro-Palestinian protesters in Los Angeles. That, says Jewish Federation of Northeast Pennsylvania president David Falk, made the nationwide rise in antisemitic rhetoric “get personal” to Jews in the Scranton area.
Such left-wing demonstrations at the colleges “may cut into the more liberal and moderate vote of the Jews”, says Falk. “Some of the more radical parts of the left move the needle more than radical parts of the right move it for the conservatives”.
Pennsylvania is led by a popular Jewish governor, Josh Shapiro. But further down the ballot, anti-Israel feeling is penetrating the state Democratic party.
In the state treasurer race, Democratic challenger Erin McClelland wants to divest from investment in Israeli bonds. In the Pittsburgh area, where the Tree of Life Synagogue was infamously attacked by a shooter in 2018, congresswoman Summer Lee, an outspoken critic of Israel, won her primary and seeks reelection. Jewish voters are concerned.
“Summer Lee has been incredibly problematic for the Jews in the district,” says spokesman Jeremy Kazzaz. “She has spread conspiracy theories based on Jewish control or Jewish insidious intent … You have her spreading any rumour about things going on in Israel in a way to frequently feel a bit like blood libel.”
Kazzaz founded the Beacon Coalition after 7 October to bring awareness to candidates who are allies of the Jewish community and fight the normalisation of antisemitic candidates on both sides of the aisle in Pennsylvania.
Forensic accountant Harris Devor, a prominent voice in the Philadelphia Jewish community, says he has been disappointed by Vice President Harris’s stance on Israel: “You would expect someone who was a real friend of Israel to be much more vociferous about this.” He’s not alone.
Republicans are working hard to woo Pennsylvania’s Jewish voters. Republican senatorial candidate Dave McCormick visited a synagogue to speak about the rising tide of antisemitism and on the same day held a fundraiser with Jewish leaders in Harrisburg. The efforts by the right might be working.
Gerald Morrison, who helped organise the fundraiser, sees an opportunity: “The strategy of the group of friends of mine, who are Republicans and who find Harris repugnant, want Jews to understand how significant this vote is with respect to Israel. We specifically invited liberals, Jewish liberals.”
Morrison says he, and other Jewish voters in the area, are highly motivated by what they see as an enabling of antisemitic rhetoric on the left regarding Israel: “The Democrats have not stood up. They haven’t stood up for the Jews. They haven’t stood up for the Jewish kids on college campuses. It’s been awful. And we in the community know it.”
However, Trump’s Republican party has its own Jewish problem. On 21 September, Trump running mate senator J D Vance attended an event in Hershey hosted by Tucker Carlson, who earlier aired a hugely publicised interview with Darryl Cooper, who produced a podcast and newsletter arguing the Holocaust was not intended by the Nazi regime. Vance has defended the interview.
Rabbi Marc Kline of Ohev Shalom congregation in Harrisburg worried the Vance event with Carlson could lead to more violent rhetoric from the right. Kline said: “I’m genuinely concerned because this man has fostered violence”.
The shooter at the Tree of Life Synagogue, who killed 11 people, believed Jews were responsible for bringing in an immigrant caravan with the intention of destroying the “white race” – the same Great Replacement theory to which Carlson has given prominent voice. “We’ve felt it, since Pittsburgh, necessary to invest a lot in security” says David Fallk in Scranton.
Despite his accusations of rising antisemitism on the left, Trump has kept company with Holocaust deniers. In 2022, he hosted outspoken antisemites Nick Fuentes and Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago. Trump also endorsed the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina, Mark Robinson, also an outspoken Holocaust denier and a recently self described “Black Nazi”.
Trump’s recent rhetoric is doing him no favours among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania. On 19 September, at an event titled Fighting Antisemitism in America, Trump appeared to set the groundwork to blame Jewish voters should he lose this November.
He said: “I’m not going to call this as a prediction, but in my opinion, the Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss if I’m at 40 percent Jewish support in the polls.”
Later that day, he continued: “If I don’t win this election … the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that.”
- Nathaniel Frum is a US-based freelance journalist
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