The Lancet stands by letter speculating 180,000 deaths in Gaza
Medical journal tells Jewish News: 'Many of these deaths may not have yet occurred.'
The world’s leading medical journal is standing by a published letter speculating that “up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza”.
Published on 5 July in the correspondence section of The Lancet, the article, ‘Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential‘, has been shared widely across social media platforms by MP Zarah Sultana, UN officials including Francesca Albanese and accepted as factual by figures including Ghassan Abu Sitta, a British-Palestinian surgeon who urged Palestinians to ‘fight back and die in dignity’ the day after the 7 October terror attacks and Jason Hickel, a visiting senior Fellow at the London School of Economics who describes the figures as “apocalyptic”.
The Irish Times also published the correspondence as fact on Monday afternoon, citing The Lancet as the source of the predicted number of deaths, not stating the number came from a speculative letter.
BBC Newsnight also platformed climate justice activist Mikaela Loach on its 9th July programme quoting the Lancet figures as fact.
The number refers to the figure of “four indirect deaths per one direct death” to calculate that “it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000” deaths could be “attributable to the current conflict in Gaza.”
The authors calculate this figure by using “the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259” to “translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip.”
It also makes reference to future “indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases.”
It was written by Rasha Khatib, listed as associated with the Institute of Community and Public Health, Birzeit University, Palestine; Martin McKee, professor of public health at The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a former president of the British Medical Association and the European Public Health Association; and Salim Yusuf, affiliated with The Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences in Ontario, Canada.
Author Martin McKee has taken to Twitter/X to admit that while the “piece has been greatly misquoted and misinterpreted,” the figures are “credible” and “purely illustrative.”
In a statement sent to Jewish News, The Lancet confirmed the letter was written by “external authors”.
The Lancet added: “The authors also note that many of these indirect deaths may not have yet occurred.”
One London GP told Jewish News: “The Lancet‘s disingenuous use of projected death tolls in relation to Israel’s war against Hamas terrorists is whipping up dangerous anti-Israel and anti-Jewish hatred within and beyond the worldwide medical community and puts Jewish and non-Jewish doctors, healthcare staff, vulnerable patients and the public at large at risk of escalating racism and extremism. Medical journals need to stick to reporting on medical issues and not to meddling in polarising politics, which could lead to dire consequences for individuals across the globe.”
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