Will Trump cement his place in history as a redeemer – or legitimise Iran’s regime?
Geneva talks test whether Trump seeks a durable Middle East settlement or a short-term nuclear headline
Tomorrow sees negotiations in Geneva over Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, a last-ditch effort to reach a deal in the region. The stress on diplomacy is a marked contrast to Trump’s position last month when he called on Iran’s protestors to continue their uprising, adding that the US was ‘locked and loaded’ and ready to take on the Islamic Republic.
Those who think an agreement is likely point to recent Iranian concessions in response to US demands. In return for sanctions relief, Iran has reportedly offered to send half its highly enriched uranium abroad, dilute the rest and help create a regional enrichment consortium.
But it looks increasingly likely that the current gaps between the two sides may be unbridgeable, leading to a series of US-led military strikes. However, even if Trump resorts to force, it is probable that it will be a means of extracting further concessions from Iran, with a definite endgame in mind: a limited deal on the country’s nuclear programme, akin to an upgrade on the JCPOA.
All of this would fit the Trump playbook: carrying out a short, decisive operation with a clear-sighted but short-term goal and then declaring victory, preferably with the incentive of a major economic reward for the US.
The President is aware that the midterms are coming in June, and any protracted Middle East conflict risks significant political fallout. The President’s approach is reflected in his choice of interlocutors: two pragmatic businessmen, Jared Kushner and his real estate buddy, Steve Witkoff.
But a short-term nuclear deal alone would be a historic mistake, one which risks defining success too narrowly. For starters, the Iranian regime cannot be trusted not to rebuild its nuclear programme, given its history of deception, evasion and concealment. This remains the major problem in any agreement that does not dismantle Iran’s enrichment programme in its entirety, just one of the many problems that bedevilled the JCPOA.
Any such deal will likely be silent on Iran’s expanding ballistic and cruise missile programme, given that Iranian officials have already stated that this issue is a red line for the regime.
Iran’s short-term missile arsenal poses an active threat to American military bases, as well as vital energy supplies in the region, and must be dismantled. The longer-range missiles still pose a major threat to Israel, despite the country’s multi-layered air defence system. In some ways, the Iranian missile threat is as grave a concern for Jerusalem as the Iranian nuclear programme.
Then there is Iran’s support for its proxy network in the region, which has been weakened but not decimated by two years of regional war. The Houthis’ sustained attack on commercial and military vessels has had a major economic impact on Western shipping, and their infrastructure of missiles and UAVs has required Iranian supply chains. Failing to break that chain, a vital component of making the region safer, would be a missed opportunity.
Above all, any agreement with the ayatollahs would be a slap in the face for the brave Iranian people who have been through a catastrophe in the last two months. Many thousands were slaughtered by the IRGC and Iran’s proxy militias in January, with countless stories testifying to the savagery meted out to protestors.
These people rose bravely in the expectation that the US would attack the hated organs of the IRGC, decapitate the Iranian leadership and thus encourage defections from within the country’s elites. If a deal leaves the Islamic Republic intact, they will have every right to feel betrayed and blindsided by the West.
It is one thing to make a pact with the devil for the sake of a great diplomatic prize. It is another to legitimise a rogue state that has committed crimes against humanity and which portends longer-term harm to the region. As the President rightly declared in his State of the Union address last night, “Since they seized control of that proud country 47 years ago, the regime and its proxies have done nothing but spread terrorism and death and hate.” Trump must choose carefully if he is to cement his place in history.
- Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author
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